Leading indicators
At what stage are we in the economic recession?
The figure shows that the impact of the 2008 crisis on Hungarian and German GDP falls short of the effect of the transformational recession faced by Hungary from 1990 and also the decline in the first half of 1930 in the United States. On the other hand, the effect was similar to the crisis faced by Britain's GDP in 1930 and the oil price shock of 1979.
What also can be observed is that the current crisis is much more indicative of a slow recovery in the Hungarian economy than the Hungarian economy’s primary export market, the German economy. On the one hand, the Hungarian crisis was deeper than the German one; on the other hand, the recovery started later here than in Germany. While the decline affected both economies at almost at the same pace and to the same degree, the German economy was able to bounce back faster and stronger than the Hungarian after the bottom had been reached. From the second half of 2010 the two economies increasingly diverge from one another in terms of the recovery to pre-crisis levels. Although the engine to Hungarian industrial growth continues to be industrial exports, especially exports to Germany, Hungarian companies have not been able to fully exploit the German recovery and the increase in demand, including the growth in import demand.
The figure was inspired by the web page of the prestigious economic research institute, The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) at www.niesr.ac.uk.
Last update: 19/02/2013
