HCCI RIEE

This is the 26^th time that the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research conducts a survey on the business climate and conjuncture among Hungarian enterprises. The survey relies on the answers of 1300-2000 managers and measures their opinion twice a year, every April and October and as such it gives the most extended sample of enterprises in Hungary among the similar business conjecture surveys. Our research is part of an Eurochambres survey involving 14 million enterprises.

This time, our database consists the answers of 1869 managers. After the turning-point last October, the anticipations of Hungarian enterprises are continuously ameliorated by April and by October as well: the indicators seem still to be in positive range. However, if we compare our latest results with the findings from April 2010, there can detect only moderated positive tendencies in the anticipations for the near future. While the IEER Conjuncture Index stayed at -9% last October, and in April it reached its peak at +14.8%, by October it dropped again and now stays at 10.4%.

Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research makes research on the actual situation and opportunities of recent graduates in the labour market of business sector since 2005 and presents the findings on different short-term trends of corporate demand on recent graduates, explores the shortages of certain professions, gives a general overview about the wages, and describes the expected qualifications and skills from a recent graduate. We also measure the acceptance and prestige of different universities.

The survey on the perspective of enterprises about the recession had been repeated for the third time by the Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research. We provide analysis not only on the general characteristics of enterprises and different indicators of business climate, but also on borrowings, foreign currency risks and financial disciplines of enterprises and the preventive actions they took in order to avoid the negative effects of the recession. Moreover, we had interest in mapping the internet usage habits at Hungarian enterprises. The three datasets are available free of charge at the following web address http://www.ola.gvi.hu/.

The results of the analysis revealed that the Hungarian enterprises did not change their developed techniques and actions in order to avoid the negative effects of the recession. Companies with foreign ownership share and export-oriented companies are usually very adaptive to the new conditions than other companies. Also, there is a strong correlation between the business situation and the adaptation skills: the worse the business situation of an enterprise the broader the range of techniques it adapts to avoid the worst case scenario.

The analysis also reveals that one part of the enterprises were so extensively affected by the recession that they were technically forced to find every possible way to reduce the negative effects. Favorable business situation thereby facilitates long-term strategic planning and action, while bad business situation makes short-term downsizing and production restraint more probable. We also tried to prove our surmise that those companies who use internet actively will be more likely to have a faster recovery from the recession but this hypotheses could not be fully tested and measured by solely relying on data about the business situation of enterprises.

The findings based on the three datasets were presented in English at CIRET Conference, Economic Tendency Surveys and the Services Sector on the 14^th October 2010. See also (https://www.ciret.org/conferences/newyork_2010). The analysis, the power point slides and the survey of the research (from March and June) can be found and downloaded in the appendix.

A survey involving 1306 enterprises.

IEER Business Climate Index shows a turning-point in the anticipations of Hungarian enterprises for the future. Between April and October 2009, the IEER Business Climate Index increased from -18% to -9%. Our latest results show that the economic recession touched its bottom in Q3 2009. As such, our hypothesis that predicted slight amelioration by the end of 2009 seems to be true.

The survey on the perspective of enterprises about the recession had been repeated in June 2009 by Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research. We provide analysis not only on the general characteristics of enterprises and different indicators of business climate, but also on borrowings, foreign currency risks and financial disciplines of enterprises and the preventive actions they took in order to avoid the negative effects of the recession. The two datasets are available free of charge at the following web address http://www.ola.gvi.hu/.

The results of the analysis revealed that the Hungarian enterprises take several preventive actions in order to avoid the negative effects of the recession. Companies with foreign ownership share and export-oriented companies are usually very adaptive to the new conditions. The analysis also reveals that one part of the enterprises were so extensively affected by the recession that they were technically forced to find every possible way to reduce the negative effects. This is why those companies who were involved in layoffs, most probably previously tried other ways to avoid the worst case scenario such as part-time working, reducing salary, delaying investments, or downsizing certain services. As such, layoffs and other downsizing programs are in auxiliary connection.

The key findings of the research were introduced to the public by giving a presentation in English at CIRET/KOF/GK Conference, Workshop on Sentiment Indicators and the Current Crisis on the 9^th November 2009. See also:(https://www.ciret.org/workshops/budapest/program). The analysis, the power point slides and the survey of the research (from March and June) can be found and downloaded in the appendix.

IEER Business Climate Index significantly decreased compared to its value from last October. This tendency is also followed by the highly increasing pessimistic anticipations of Hungarian enterprises. The recession in real economy is so significant that it equally influences all sectors. Business climate anticipations, however, predict amelioration by the end of 2009. 

Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research makes research on the actual situation and opportunities of recent graduates in the labour market of business sector since 2005 and presents the findings on different short-term trends of corporate demand on recent graduates, explores the shortages of certain professions, gives a general overview about the wages, and describes the expected qualifications and skills from a recent graduate. We also measure the acceptance and prestige of different universities.

According to the results of the IEER Business Tendency Survey, the business climate of Hungarian companies, end of 2007 and early 2008 was the nadir for the Hungarian enterprises followed by the slow process of catching up as we can see from the slightly increasing GDP. This process, however, does not go hand in hand with the amelioration of anticipations for the future; in fact, the opposite: the uncertainty regarding the future is higher than ever.

The IEER Business Climate Index stays at 12% (compared to 4.2 % from last year) that shows clear improvement. This change in the short-run ended a decreasing tendency continuous from April 2002 but it is not sure yet whether it will bring alteration to the long-term processes as well. One warning sign might be that the value of IEER Uncertainty Index augmented again (0.49), reaching its peak for the 1998-2008 period.

Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research makes research on the actual situation and opportunities of recent graduates in the labour market of business and presents the findings on different short-term trends of corporate demand on recent graduates. We also measure the perceptions of enterprises on different universities. In Q1 2007 we conducted a survey involving 1000 representatives of enterprises and carried out 30 in-depth interviews with heads of HR companies.

According to the results of the IEER Business Tendency Survey, the business climate of Hungarian companies significantly deteriorated in the second half of 2007 followed by an increased pessimistic anticipation for the near future. As such, the decreasing tendency - originated back to April 2006 - seems to be continuing. Moreover, comparing to the last survey results, the pessimistic anticipations became even more pronounced, however ? with the exception of expected investment activity - the indicators seem still to be in positive range.

Even though expectations are somewhat less cloudy than half a year ago, firms with pessimistic expectations still scarcely outweigh those with positive prospects. Regarding the longtime trough in 2007's economic growth, prospects might be insufficient for a perceptible upswing in 2008. Business confidence is less favorable in the services sector compared to manufacturing companies. It seems that building industry couldn't overcome the difficulties of the sectoral downturn in 2006. According to the responses businesses' total turnover remained unchanged in 2007 characterized by the contrast of sluggish domestic and vivid external demand. Same is true for expectations, which means that even the expected dynamic growth in exports could fail to outweigh negative effects of weak national sales. Balance figure for domestic sales decreased slightly, favorable balance figure for export sales remained almost unchanged. This is an important aspect, since export is still the main force behind economic activity in Hungary. In the services sector assessment of both present and expected turnover is far less favorable than in manufacturing which is true for domestic and export sales as well.

We examined in our research relations and operating mechanisms of the suppliers of large retail chains and daily consumer goods operating in the domestic market using qualitative and quantitative approach. In our survey conducted in the first half of 2007 we contacted managers of supplying firms with interviews (15 of them) and with a structured questionnaire (392 firms). Due to the sensitive nature of the research we experienced a high rate of refusal, yet the statistical reviews performed corroborate that this fact did not distort research outcomes.

Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research in collaboration with the Ministry of Social Affairs and Labour conducted a research on the expected demand of labour and short-term business expectations of enterprises.

Our study is based on a survey conducted between October and November 2005, and it aims to measure the anticipations of SME's on business climate and employment trends with special emphasis on the actual situation of recent graduates.

Less optimistic expectations: A passing halt or the overture of a weaker expansion? 

Slightly improving anticipations.

A turning point in the anticipations of Hungarian enterprises.

A turning point? Increasing uncertainty and deteriorating business climate.