Business Climate 1/2011 (April)
The Institute for Economic and Enterprise Research conducts a survey on the business climate among Hungarian enterprises since 1998. The survey relies on the answers of 1300-2000 managers and measures their opinion twice a year, every April and October and as such it gives the most extended sample of enterprises in Hungary among the similar business tendency surveys. Our research is part of an Eurochambres survey, all together involving more than 14 million enterprises to a European business tendency survey research program by now. In the past ten years, our findings seem to predict accurately the expected change in the GDP of Hungary. Our key findings had been used by OECD, IMF and the Hungarian government as well.
This time, our database consists the answers of 1803 enterprises. After the turning-point in October 2009, the business anticipations of Hungarian enterprises are continuously ameliorated: the indicators seem still to be in positive range even in comparison with last year. While the IEER Business Climate Index stayed at +10.4 last October, by April 2011 it reached +16.8. According to our results, the recession in the Hungarian economy is now over its nadir, there are improving business anticipations and business confidence. Although way out of recession has started in October 2009, the process is rather slow.
The IEER Uncertainty Index did not change over the last half a year; still stays at value 45.5 which is considered to be high. This means that there are still a significant number of enterprises without counting on the improvement of business climate.